Future trajectories for population growth and food requirements

Population growth

Understanding population sizes and how they are changing is important for predicting current and future food requirements. The United Nations is the key organisation that models expected population growth, and they project that world population growth will slow significantly over the course of the 21st century, coming close to a peak of 10.9 billion by 2100 [Roser et al, 2019a].

In Figure A, we see the global population split by region. This shows historical data, but also projections to 2100 based on the UN’s modelling. The largest change between now and 2100 is the expected growth in the African population. Today, Africa’s population is around 1.3 billion; by 2100 it’s projected to more than triple to 4.3 billion. Over the past 50 years, Asia experienced rapid population growth. Today its population stands at around 4.6 billion. By 2050 it’s expected to rise to 5.3 billion, but then fall in the latter half of the century. By the end of the century, more than 8 out of every 10 people in the world will live in Asia or Africa [Roser 2019b].

Figure A:World population by region 1950 to 2100 from Roser (2019b)

If you are interested in population growth statistics, how this has changed over time and the driving forces behind the changes, this website provides some interesting graphs and maps.

Food requirements

Livestock

The combination of population growth, rising per capita incomes and urbanisation created an unprecedented growth in demand for food animals in developing countries. This growth has been termed a ‘Livestock Revolution’ by the FAO [Delgado et al, 2001].

Meat consumption is highest in high-income countries with a general correlation between meat consumption and GDP (Figure B). Growth in per capita meat consumption has been most marked in countries that underwent a strong economic transition. For example, per capita consumption in China has grown approximately 15-fold since 1961, and rates in Brazil have nearly quadrupled. The exception to this pattern has been India, in which lacto-vegetarian diets predominate, and mean per capita meat consumption has not significantly changed since 1961 (Figure C) [Richie and Roser, 2019]. Meat consumption trends in high-income countries have stagnated or even decreased over the last 50 years. In the interactive chart in Figure C (click the link in the legend for the interactive version), you can see current rates of meat consumption for selected countries, reflecting demand, and how this has changed over time.

Figure B:Meat consumption vs. GDP per capita [Richie and Roser, 2019].

Production of all major meat types has been increasing in absolute terms, globally (Figure C). However, in relative terms, the share of global meat types has changed significantly over the last 50 years. In 1961, poultry meat accounted for only 12% of global meat production; by 2013 its share had approximately tripled to around 35%. In comparison, beef and buffalo meat as a share of total meat production has nearly halved, now accounting for around 22%. Pig meat’s share has remained more constant at approximately 35-40% [Richie and Roser, 2019] (Figure C).

Figure C: Meat production by livestock type, World 1961 to 2018 [Richie and Roser, 2019]

Capture fisheries and aquaculture

There is a significant and growing role of fisheries and aquaculture in providing food and nutrition (Figure D). In per capita terms, global food fish consumption rose from 9kg (live weight equivalent) in 1961 to 20.3 kg in 2017, at an average rate of about 1.5% per year. Over the same period, total meat consumption grew by 1.1% per year [FAO 2020].

Figure D: Contribution of fish to animal protein supply, average 2015–2017 [FAO 2020]

At the global level, since 2016, aquaculture has become the main source of fish available for human consumption (Figure E and F). In 2018, aquaculture contributed 52% to global fish production, a figure that can be expected to continue to increase in the long term. The growth in aquaculture production is a result of intensification and improved efficiencies in the industry (i.e. supply factors), combined with rising incomes and increasing awareness of the health benefits of fish in diets (i.e. demand factors) [FAO 2020].

Figure E: World capture fisheries and aquaculture production [FAO 2020]

Figure F: World aquaculture of food fish and aquatic plants, 1990-2018 [FAO 2020]

World production of farmed aquatic food is dominated by Asia, with an 89% share in the last 20 years. Over the same period, the shares of Africa and the Americas have increased, while those of Europe and Oceania have decreased slightly. China has produced more farmed aquatic food than the rest of the world combined since 1991. However, China’s share in world aquaculture production declined from 59.9% in 1995 to 57.9% in 2018 and is expected to decrease further in the coming years, due to government policies introduced in 2016 [FAO 2020].

What implications does this projected population growth, and changing diet and income have?

Scientists have investigated how much land we would need if the global population were to adopt the average diet of any given country. The results are presented in an interactive map (Ritchie 2017). The map is colour-coded as follows: Countries shown in blue have an average diet which, if adopted globally, would result in less land use for agriculture than current levels. Countries shown in yellow have an average diet which, if adopted globally, would require an expansion of agricultural land from our current allocation, but would be physically viable within global land constraints. Those shown in orange have dietary requirements which would not be feasible at a global scale, even if we converted all habitable land to agriculture.

The need to "Double Food Production by 2050"

We frequently hear from the agriculture and aquaculture industry, politicians and scientists that we need to ‘double food production by 2050 to feed a growing population’. Where did this statistic come from, what is the baseline date from which we need to double production, and is it true?

The origins of the statement can be traced back to a speech given at the United Nations at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) High-Level Conference on World Food Security in June 2008. Jacques Diouf, Director-General of the FAO stated that “Global food production must be doubled to feed a world population currently standing at 6 billion and expected to rise to 9 billion by 2050” [Diouf 2008].

A panel of experts on a ‘New Cooperation for Global Food Security’ committee then repeated the statement in 2009 [UN 2009]. The supposed source of the statistic is the FAO report World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050 [FAO 2006]. However, this report implied a 70% increase in cereal and livestock production by 2050 from the base year assessment of 2005/2007 [FAO 2006]. This was revised to a 60% increase by 2050 in 2012 [FAO 2012]. In the 2012 revision the authors stated ‘We hasten to add that the percent increase in the aggregate volume is not a very meaningful indicator. The volume index adds together very dissimilar products (oranges, grain, meat. milk, coffee, oilseeds, cotton, etc) using price weights for aggregation. Anyone interested in food and agriculture futures can use more meaningful metrics, e.g. tonnes of grain, of meat, food consumption per capita in terms of kg/person/year or kcal/person/day, yields, land use, etc….. ‘ [FAO 2012].

Some other points to consider are that (1) the projected increases are those required to match the projected demand as it may develop, not what is required to feed the projected world population [FAO 2012], and (2) food security is about more than simply food availability: accessibility (i.e. affordability, equitable trade and distribution networks), acceptability (according to local cultures and belief systems), utilisation (food waste) and quality (nutritional content) are also critical.

Globally, we produce enough food to sufficiently meet energy and nutrition requirements of the global population [FAO 2017], yet there are millions of people that are hungry or undernourished. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of people experiencing hunger globally and suffering from food insecurity had been rising gradually since 2014 [UN and Council, 2020].

References

Roser, M., Ritchie, H. & Ortiz-Ospina, E. World Population Growth. Our Wordl in Data (2019a).

Roser, M. Future Population Growth. Our World in Datahttps://ourworldindata.org/fut... (2019b).

Delgado, C., Rosegrant, M., Steinfeld, H., Ehui, S. & Courbois, C. Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution. Outlook Agric.30, (2001).

Ritchie, H. & Roser, M. Meat and Dairy Production. OurWorldInData.orghttps://ourworldindata.org/mea... (2019).

FAO. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2020. Sustainability in action.FAO (2020). doi:https://doi.org/10.4060/ca9229en.

Diouf, J. N. (2008).

United Nations. New Cooperation for Global Food Security. https://www.un.org/press/en/20... (2009).

FAO. WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050: Interim Report. (2006).

FAO. WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050 The 2012 Revision. (2012).

FAO. The future of food and agriculture – Trends and challenges. (2017)

United Nations & Council, E. and S. Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Report of the Secretary-General (2020).